Demographic change is said to be one of the important drivers for new trends in consumer behaviour in most European countries (e.g. Lind 2001, Smeral 2003, Wallace 1999). Two important demographic trends, often being in focus at conferences as well as in publications are:
a) an older growing society due to rising life expectancy (developed countries taking the lead) (e.g. Lind 2001, OECD 1998; Ruskin 2002; Wallace 1999; Horx 2002),
b) a declining number of children due to sinking fertility in many industrial countries combined with the dissolution of traditional family patterns (e.g. Lind 2001, Wallace 1999, Schäfers 1995, Horx 2002),
These are major demographic changes that are already influencing society today and that are worth a closer look on how they may have an impact on holiday travel behaviour.
Compared to other trends, demographic trends seem quite easy to identify and predict - estimated future development based on these developments therefore appears to be rather reliable. The problem is the next step: How will these demographic changes influence consumer behaviour? Are they of any importance? Will the senior generation of tomorrow behave the same way as the present one or perhaps completely different? Will a growing number of one-child-households, patchwork-families, grandparents traveling with their grand children etc. affect the expectations on family products? (How) should suppliers adjust?
To draw conclusions about a potential future reality of consumer behaviour based on statistical data not only requires a sound basis of demographic data but a reliable knowledge on the links between demographic data and the tourists’ behaviour. Tourism consumer surveys can provide data
On the importance a segment has in tourism (does change really matter in terms of volume?)
On the specific behaviour patterns of the segment in focus (e.g. does a “new”, emerging segment show a different behaviour from “older” segments?)
On the direction and degree of change in tourist behaviour patterns related to the general trends in society.
We define a trend as a development in time which can be identified in the past and is likely (with good reasons) to continue in the future (cf. Lohmann & Aderhold, 2000). Thus, trends describe possible developments likely to come. They can be used as information input for marketing or social planning. According to his objectives, the marketing professional will support or fight the trend, his action of course influencing the reality as well.
This paper gives two examples from Germany on how the results of consumer surveys can be used as a tool for trend research. The first example refers to the growing number and share of “seniors”, analyses the fundamental patterns of changes in holiday travel behaviour during the life span, and allows for a surprisingly simple way to have a look at the dynamics ahead. The second example focuses on the declining number of children born combined with the dissolution of traditional family patterns. What does this change mean for holiday tourism?
a) an older growing society due to rising life expectancy (developed countries taking the lead) (e.g. Lind 2001, OECD 1998; Ruskin 2002; Wallace 1999; Horx 2002),
b) a declining number of children due to sinking fertility in many industrial countries combined with the dissolution of traditional family patterns (e.g. Lind 2001, Wallace 1999, Schäfers 1995, Horx 2002),
These are major demographic changes that are already influencing society today and that are worth a closer look on how they may have an impact on holiday travel behaviour.
Compared to other trends, demographic trends seem quite easy to identify and predict - estimated future development based on these developments therefore appears to be rather reliable. The problem is the next step: How will these demographic changes influence consumer behaviour? Are they of any importance? Will the senior generation of tomorrow behave the same way as the present one or perhaps completely different? Will a growing number of one-child-households, patchwork-families, grandparents traveling with their grand children etc. affect the expectations on family products? (How) should suppliers adjust?
To draw conclusions about a potential future reality of consumer behaviour based on statistical data not only requires a sound basis of demographic data but a reliable knowledge on the links between demographic data and the tourists’ behaviour. Tourism consumer surveys can provide data
On the importance a segment has in tourism (does change really matter in terms of volume?)
On the specific behaviour patterns of the segment in focus (e.g. does a “new”, emerging segment show a different behaviour from “older” segments?)
On the direction and degree of change in tourist behaviour patterns related to the general trends in society.
We define a trend as a development in time which can be identified in the past and is likely (with good reasons) to continue in the future (cf. Lohmann & Aderhold, 2000). Thus, trends describe possible developments likely to come. They can be used as information input for marketing or social planning. According to his objectives, the marketing professional will support or fight the trend, his action of course influencing the reality as well.
This paper gives two examples from Germany on how the results of consumer surveys can be used as a tool for trend research. The first example refers to the growing number and share of “seniors”, analyses the fundamental patterns of changes in holiday travel behaviour during the life span, and allows for a surprisingly simple way to have a look at the dynamics ahead. The second example focuses on the declining number of children born combined with the dissolution of traditional family patterns. What does this change mean for holiday tourism?
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